Five major trends for 2026
- Expansion in advanced 2nm nodes:
Intel, TSMC, Samsung, and Rapidus are leading the race to increase production capacity in 2nm technologies, driven by demand for high-performance chips for data centers and AI applications.
- China maintains its key role:
Despite export restrictions and new tariffs, China will continue to be a key player in the manufacturing equipment market, with moderate growth following the downturn in 2025.
- Sustainability under pressure:
Industry emissions could reach a new record of 190 million tons of CO₂ in 2026. Energy consumption at wafer factories remains the primary driver, particularly in Taiwan, South Korea, and China.
- From oversupply to optimization:
After years of excess inventory, the market is entering a phase of adjustment and optimization, with investments focused on AI and advanced memory (HBM, NAND). The consumer, automotive, and industrial sectors remain weak.
- New encapsulation materials:
The transition to glass substrates will mark a turning point in 2026, offering higher performance and stability compared to traditional organic substrates in high-density applications such as AI accelerators and HBM memories.
Overview:
The semiconductor market is entering a phase of concentrated growth, driven almost exclusively by AI, while the consumer and automotive segments continue to lag behind. Public investment—such as the CHIPS Act programs in the US and Europe—supports the development of advanced capabilities, but the reliance on a single growth engine leaves the market vulnerable to economic or regulatory changes.
