Automotive Forecasts – Electric vehicles will lose up to 12 kg and manufacturers will look for innovative ways to extend battery life (by Nicolas Richard, Director of Automotive Business Development EMEA at Vicor)
Current electric vehicles incorporate up to three separate batteries: a 400V or 800V traction battery and a distribution system powered by secondary 12V and 48V batteries. Manufacturers are striving to reduce vehicle weight and can eliminate up to 12 kg in battery electric vehicles (BEVs), as well as simplify the power system by configuring the traction battery to power the 12V battery. This makes the 12V battery redundant and disposable. As 2022 progresses, we expect this modular power approach to be adopted by OEMs aiming to electrify and differentiate their fleets, offering greater range and improved overall performance.
We also anticipate a boost in the reuse of EV batteries so they can be used in electric forklifts or as backup power in homes. There is growing interest from high-power commercial vehicles in using hydrogen fuel cells, and this will generate a much greater demand for high-efficiency DC/DC conversion.
Finally, inside the vehicle itself, ride comfort will also become increasingly important for both the driver and passengers. We believe there will be a much greater demand for electrically based active suspension systems, and this will once again necessitate more efficient power management solutions.
Forecasts for high-performance computing – Data center growth will continue to accelerate, catalyzed by the pandemic (by Lev Slutskiy, Regional Director at Vicor)
In 2022, the global market for high-performance computing will continue to grow from approximately $147 billion last year, with a projected average annual growth rate of 27.4% through 2028 [1]. Key factors contributing to this growth include increased cloud activity, data center optimization, social media platforms, and the rise of data-as-a-service.
We believe the debate regarding AC versus DC power will continue among data center operators. Advantages of DC distribution include the elimination of large AC/DC UPS systems and the removal of concerns about load balancing. Modern data centers typically use the approach of connecting the building to three-phase AC and then splitting it into three single-phase AC lines, each backed up by its own UPS.
The trend towards a greater share of renewable “green” energy continues and high-voltage DC will be supplied by the primary energy source in a greater number of cases, especially at the edge.
COVID-19 has accelerated data growth, and this trend will continue after the pandemic. As 5G is introduced, network infrastructure will become more complex due to the increased number of computing nodes located closer to the user to reduce latency and enable the use of IoT applications.
The development of IoT will necessitate greater computing power to improve security and increase the demand for computing power in edge, mid-ground (fog), and centralized applications. Vicor is addressing this trend from the outset by building the smallest and densest power converters. It is clear that data centers must reduce their energy consumption by incorporating dense power modules, which in turn minimizes the cooling air load.
Supply chains continue to suffer disruptions and we believe these difficulties will persist at least until the end of 2023.
Forecasts for the defense and aerospace sector – Innovation and the demand for greater efficiency will continue despite the pandemic and the shortage of qualified personnel (by Teo DeLellis, Director of Aerospace Business Development at Vicor)
Innovation and the demand for greater efficiency will continue to generate increasing interest in electrification with the goal of replacing mechanical systems and chemical fuels. For example, advanced submersibles are replacing hydraulic systems with electric ones, while electric aircraft are breaking records for range and speed.
Power management will remain paramount in electric drones, while the growing interest in directed-energy weapons such as lasers installed on ships and vehicles will demand solutions for managing new power sources such as solid-state batteries.
There is also an increase in demand for power electronics technologies that meet the requirements of standards such as the SOSA (Sensor Open System Architecture) architecture.
The post-pandemic recovery is driving a resurgence in demand for electronic systems in the military and aerospace markets. As a result, Vicor and other companies have extended delivery times for some products. This situation is expected to continue well into 2022, although Vicor is mitigating it by expanding its production facilities.
Another consequence of the pandemic can be seen in the civil aviation sector, where air travel has not yet recovered to pre-COVID levels. We expect that both civil aviation and the aftermarket will reach those levels by 2023.
As in other engineering sectors, we continue to see a growing shortage of skilled workers. It is estimated that by 2030, up to 85 million jobs will be unfilled due to a lack of skilled personnel, equivalent to $8.5 trillion, according to a recent Korn Ferry report. Hiring young engineers could be crucial to preventing a prolonged shortage, and this could be achieved in this sector through the adoption of innovative electrical technologies, demonstrating how the industry is responding to environmental concerns and a commitment to renewable energy.
The booming European space sector will also make greater use of electric propulsion in space vehicles, primarily in the new broadband satellite constellations.
