In the last four years, level 3 technologies have been certified for use by consumers on public roads, hands-free/eye-guided driving has become established as a market segment, and commercial driverless robotaxi services have been made available to the public.

Number of models available with hands-free and eyes-activated driving technologies. Source: IDTechEx

Level 3 is already here, but it's growing more slowly than expected

Although level 3 technologies have arrived and technically been available since 2021, their growth has been slow.

Honda was the first to reach this milestone, certifying hands-free and eyes-free driving in specific scenarios in the Legend Ex in 2021. However, to say that its availability was somewhat limited would be an understatement; one hundred vehicles were available to rent directly from Honda in Japan alone.

Mercedes was the next to achieve this in 2022, certifying the S-Class DrivePilot system and the EQS for Level 3 use in Germany. Later, in 2023, it obtained certification in Nevada and California. BMW quickly followed suit, certifying its rival 7 Series for Level 3 in Germany in early 2024.

Tesla also expects to soon join the Level 3 rollout club, announcing that hands-free and eyes-free driving will arrive for owners in Texas and California sometime in 2025.

That's it. A handful of cars on the market, in a handful of places, and those already here still face strict limitations on how and when the technology is used. More launches are on the horizon, and Mobileye has secured several design wins for its hands- and eyesless Chauffeur product. But even when these technologies reach the market, there's no guarantee that OEMs and regulators will be willing to certify their more widespread use in Europe, the US, China, or anywhere else. The IDTechEx report, "Autonomous Vehicles Market 2025-2045: Robotaxis, Autonomous Cars, Sensors," goes into detail about why OEMs might hesitate, the legislative developments in different regions, and how this creates an environment conducive to the success of Level 2+ technologies.

Level 2+ technologies take off.
Level 2+ technologies allow the driver to take their hands off the wheel without taking their eyes off the road. The "eyes on the road" aspect is what makes the difference and what makes Level 2+ much easier to implement than Level 3 technologies. By keeping their eyes on the road, the driver remains responsible for the vehicle. In contrast, if a Level 3 vehicle operates in "eyes off" mode, the responsibility lies with the manufacturer, who must give the driver ten seconds' notice to regain control if the system detects a fault.

Maintaining driver responsibility is much more convenient for the manufacturer, who doesn't need the same level of confidence in the vehicle's autonomous capabilities. They are also happy for the vehicles to be used at maximum highway speeds, unlike the 60 km/h limit currently in place for Mercedes and BMW in Germany, although Mercedes plans to increase this soon.

Lawmakers also seem more satisfied with Level 2+. In North America, General Motors' Super Cruise system is available in the United States and Canada, while Ford's BlueCruise is also available in Europe.
From a vehicle hardware perspective, Level 2+ car technology is very similar to that of Level 3 cars. In fact, BMW has both a Level 3 and a Level 2+ product, with the main difference in the sensor suite being the presence of LiDAR in the Level 3 car. The IDTechEx report shows that the typical sensor suite of a Level 2+ system uses five radars and eight cameras, and that LiDAR is mostly used in Level 3 vehicles in the West, but is much more common in China. The report also indicates that higher-level vehicles use many more sensors: some Level 4 robotaxis employ up to 40 individual perception sensors.

Robotaxis at the time "hockey stick"

Robotaxis are already a reality in several cities in the United States and China, and the sector is set to continue growing.

In the US, Waymo is the most prominent. It has established operations in Phoenix, San Francisco, and Los Angeles, and has been expanding its presence in each of these cities. Now, it is expanding into Austin and Atlanta, two new states for this pioneering company.

In China, several companies are making significant strides, including Baidu's Apollo Go, AutoX, and WeRide. Similar to their US counterparts, these companies are expanding into new cities. But it was Baidu that grabbed headlines in 2024. Already operating in several cities, it intensified its presence in Wuhan that year. There, it operates across 1,200 square miles with a fleet of 500 vehicles. However, what garnered the most attention was its aggressive pricing strategy, offering rides that are 80% cheaper than passenger taxis.

In the US and China, IDTechEx expects more cities to connect each year and existing deployments to expand. For example, San Francisco started very small before growing to cover the entire city, and now, in 2024, it has begun to expand across the peninsula and includes Daly City. IDTechEx expects this service to grow and extend to Silicon Valley and beyond in the coming years.

With expanding operating areas, a growing number of cities, and more vehicles in each location, IDTechEx believes that 2024 and the next few years will be remembered as the hockey stick moment for robotaxis and autonomous driving.

Author: Dr. James Jeffs, Principal Technology Analyst at IDTechEx