“As solar power becomes increasingly competitive with conventional energy generation sources, companies are investing in the renewable energy industry like never before, attracted by growing revenue opportunities and pressure to increase sustainability,” says Edurne Zoco, research director, energy storage and solar power at IHS Markit. “Solar and other renewable energy sources also play a key role in the decentralization and digitalization of the energy system, or the so-called ‘energy transition,’ which is now on the agendas of many governments, businesses, and other institutions.”.
"Predictions for the photovoltaic industry in 2019," a new technical report from IHS Markit, identifies the following eight important trends that will drive the market this year:
1. Global photovoltaic installations will return to double-digit growth, with record volumes installed in the fourth quarter of 2019. This year will be the first since 2011 that annual photovoltaic installations will grow in all six global regions. Europe, the Middle East, North America, South and Central America, Africa, and Asia-Pacific will contribute to year-on-year growth of 18 percent.
2. European photovoltaic demand will return to 2012 levels as corporate PPPs play an increasingly important role. Europe will continue to regain ground as a photovoltaic market in 2019. In fact, 18 GW will be installed across the region, a milestone not seen since 2012. The increasingly attractive economics of photovoltaics are helping to revive markets, aided by growing opportunities to sign private power purchase agreements (PPAs).
3. The renewal and repowering of photovoltaic (PV) plants will grow in importance as the installed base in Europe ages. At the beginning of 2019, more than 40 GW of PV systems in Europe with a capacity of over 100 kilowatts (kW) were more than six years old. Technology costs have fallen dramatically since these installations were completed, so upgrading older PV plants to improve their performance and return on investment is becoming increasingly common.
4. China’s policy decisions will continue to define global dynamics as it drives its domestic market toward grid parity projects. With China accounting for approximately 65 percent of PV module production in 2018 and 41 percent of global installations, the country clearly dictates the supply and demand balance for the industry. This trend will be more pronounced than ever in 2019 as the industry awaits confirmation of anticipated changes to the country’s incentive policies.
5. More than 500 megawatt-hours (MWh) of battery storage will be deployed at large-scale solar plants in North America. The combination of intermittent renewable energy and batteries has long been considered the key to providing scalable, dispatchable, and clean energy. In 2019, the first significant volumes of these systems will be installed, with the activity primarily focused on North America.
6. Diversification among PV inverter suppliers will continue as they continue to grapple with stagnant revenues. PV inverter suppliers will continue to expand into a diverse range of adjacent industries as price pressure and intense competition persist.
7. The race for the 400-watt (W) PV module will heat up as high-efficiency products gain market share. Solar PV has become a highly competitive energy source, as the average price of a solar panel has fallen by more than 80 percent in the last decade. However, these cost improvements have been supported by continuous improvements in cell and module efficiency, which have increased by approximately 25 percent during the same period.
There will be 11 million new Energy Internet connections from solar systems in 2019. Grid digitization continues to be a megatrend for the electricity sector and the solar industry. IHS Markit forecasts an average of 30,000 new photovoltaic inverters will be shipped every day in 2019, or 11 million for the entire year.
