First, the numbers are impressive. The electric vehicle business is entering the rapid growth portion of the sigmoid growth curve typical of most major new technologies. It's on track to create a traction motor business worth over $100 billion by 2029. Double that figure if you include the units where motors are increasingly integrated, such as wheels, axles, or transmissions.
Premium pricing is becoming increasingly feasible because engines are not only becoming engine-generators most of the time, but are also enabling new things. For example, moving beyond four-wheel drive to vector-steering construction and agricultural vehicles that break up roads, and making them smaller, less expensive, and more capable, thus increasing sales.
Even 20-propeller engines on aircraft wings exploit the new principle of "distributed thrust," allowing the wing to be half the size or take off using half the distance. Multicopters planned for air taxis are notoriously inefficient, and those with a flight time of only 30 minutes over a city are simply irresponsible, but a large number of propellers working together reduces the disadvantage against a helicopter. The Nikola fuel cell truck has six motors in each wheel, giving it excellent traction and preventing tire burnout during acceleration—a similar logic to the Tesla Model S, which incorporates a second motor.
Yes, the proliferation of engines, including military ships and all-terrain vehicles to survive attacks, means that the engine market is growing even faster than the electric vehicle market.
Secondly, prices are often rising. You can't buy a starter-generator for the 17 million-unit market for 48V mild-hybrid trucks and cars by 2029 for the same price as a single starter motor. In fact, some of these vehicles will have two! You can't buy four in-wheel motors for the recently announced cars if you want to pay the price of one in-wheel motor.
Third, there's an acquisition frenzy, and it follows a pattern. With many vehicle manufacturers, from Toyota to the tiny Zero motorcycles, making their own motor-generators a key enabling technology, Tier One component suppliers often face serious consequences for their inadequate research and development. Since acquiring broad-range motor manufacturers like Remy, they're now focusing on specific and emerging technologies. What do the acquisitions of SR Drives, CPT, and Visedo have in common with Tesla making its own motor for the Tesla Model 3? They all involve switched reluctance, potentially the lowest-cost, most robustly controlled motor. It has size and performance advantages over other methods, avoiding the ever-increasing price of magnets and temperature limitations. Yes, some have a few small magnets for now, but the point is clear.
So why do electric motors fail so quickly in many applications compared to 100-year-old electric ships? Heavy duty cycles are getting tougher. For example, large drones operating over the internet for ten years will not only need 20 kW/kg motors, as detailed in the report, but they will also need incredibly reliable motors, as will drones generating megawatts from high-altitude winds. Billions of dollars of investment are being poured in: premium prices are expected. The same goes for the monster of unmanned trucks in fully automated deep-sea mines this year. The new IDTechEx report, "Electric Motors for Electric Vehicles: Land, Water, Air 2019-2029," reveals which motor technology innovators will be the next targets for those urgently looking to catch up, and why.
Author: Dr. Peter Harrop, President, IDTechEx
