In its statement, Stellantis said it does not expect hydrogen-powered light commercial vehicles to be widely adopted before the end of the decade. Without Stellantis in the picture, the outlook for fuel cell light commercial vehicles has worsened. Renault could still launch its Master H2-Tech hydrogen van in Europe this year, with a WLTP range of 700 km. However, the liquidation of its joint venture with Plug, known as Hyvia, which was created to build a hydrogen mobility ecosystem, has cast doubt on this.

In February 2025, Renault's then-CEO, Luca de Meo, stated that Renault was selling its hydrogen vans at a loss. Separately, Toyota has deployed FCEVs, including light commercial vehicles, in Fukuoka, Japan. Originally signed in 2022, these FCEV light commercial vehicles have been used for various applications, such as food delivery and ambulance services.

According to IDTechEx's analysis, light commercial vehicles are unlikely to be a competitive market for FCEVs. Unlike heavy vehicles such as trucks and buses, less charging power is needed to recharge a vehicle. With daily mileage rarely exceeding 160 km, depending on the application, the requirements of light commercial vehicles are easily met by battery electric technology.

Fuel cell passenger cars remain uncommon on our roads, though market activity continues in the background. The Hyundai Nexo received its first update this year since its initial launch in 2018. Among other things, it has increased hydrogen storage and range, and features a route planner that displays available hydrogen refueling stations. The Honda CR-V and Toyota Mirai continue to sell in modest numbers, almost exclusively in Japan, Korea, and the United States. BMW has maintained its firm commitment to entering the FCEV passenger car market by 2028.

With continued investment from these major original equipment manufacturers, it's still possible that the passenger car FCEV market will grow in the coming years. IDTechEx forecasts some growth in the passenger car FCEV market, which is expected to reach approximately 500,000 annual sales by 2045.

Heavy FCEVs continue to advance, but slowly

In this regard, fuel cell buses, while less common than battery electric buses, have continued to gain traction in the market. IDTechEx learned at the Hydrogen Technology Expo North America that Hyundai plans to launch its fuel cell bus in the US market. For the first quarter of 2025, Ballard, a leading fuel cell supplier, reported an approximate 40% increase in revenue from bus applications.

The recent deployments in California (Xcelsior) and Germany (Solaris) are powered by Ballard fuel cell technology. According to IDTechEx analysis, federal investment in fuel cell buses and related infrastructure in the U.S. exceeded $270 million in July 2025. The combination of this support and the fact that almost all buses operate as a fleet has led to some progress in the fuel cell bus market this year.
According to IDTechEx analysis, long-haul heavy hauling remains the best use case for fuel cell trucks. There has been some uncertainty following the high-profile bankruptcy of Nikola Motors earlier this year. However, Hyundai, Toyota, and Honda continue to use fuel cell trucks. Hyundai has delivered more than 3,000 fuel cell trucks in 14 countries. Toyota uses fuel cell trucks for its own logistics, while Honda's fuel cell truck, in collaboration with Isuzu, is still slated for release in 2027.

The Chinese market remains the leading region for fuel cell trucks, with nearly 500 sold in the first quarter of 2025. These are mainly concentrated in regions with hydrogen mobility demonstrations and pilot projects.

In the first quarter of 2025, five provinces deployed more than 50 fuel cell trucks in China. These deployments were only possible thanks to access to readily available hydrogen refueling. Lack of market demand, exacerbated by the limited availability of refueling stations, was cited as one of the main reasons Stellantis discontinued the development of its fuel cell vehicles.

IDTechEx Conclusions and Perspectives

In a year of uncertainty, fuel cell vehicles have continued to survive, reaching the halfway point. Although Stellantis has withdrawn, Hyvia (a Renault-Plug company) has been liquidated, and Nikola has gone bankrupt this year, projects for a broader hydrogen economy continue to emerge.

If these projects are successful, the opportunities for FCEVs could be significant, especially while the lithium-ion battery market remains dominated by Chinese players and following the recent bankruptcy of battery manufacturer Northvolt.

It is possible that, with a consolidated hydrogen refueling infrastructure, as detailed, for example, in the EU regulation on alternative fuel infrastructure (deadline 2030), original equipment manufacturers will reassess and re-enter the FCEV market.

Author: John Li, IDTechEx