IC Insights recently updated its forecasts for 33 major IC product categories, including DRAM and NAND flash, in its April update to the 2021 edition of The McClean Report—A Complete Analysis and Forecast of the Integrated Circuit Industry (MR21). The updated forecast shows that after a sharp decline in 2019, memory IC sales rebounded 15% during a COVID-19-plagued 2020. Following that surge, stronger DRAM pricing is expected to boost total memory revenue by 23% this year to $155.2 billion. The average selling price of DRAM increased 8% sequentially in the first quarter of this year, and nearly all major memory vendors stated in their most recent quarterly financial reports that they expected stronger demand in Q2 2021.
The memory market rally is expected to continue in 2022, with total memory sales projected to increase by 16% to $180.4 billion, surpassing the previous all-time high of $163.3 billion set in 2018 at the peak of the previous memory cycle. The memory market is expected to reach its next cyclical peak in 2023, with revenues growing to nearly $220 billion—exceeding the $200 billion mark for the first time—before a cooling period begins in 2024. From 2020 to 2025, IC Insights forecasts the overall memory market will grow at a rate of 10.6%.
In 2021, DRAM is expected to account for 56% of the memory market (Figure 2), and flash memory for 43%. DRAM is also projected to represent the majority of memory unit sales this year. While a viable market remains for other memory products (EEPROM, EPROM, ROM, SRAM, etc.), these segments are unlikely to gain a significantly larger market share than they currently do.
