In 2020 there will be zero, but despite this, by 2027, China plans to complete the electrification of its bus fleet. The IDTechEx report, "Electric Buses 2019-2029," has doubts about this, but certainly sees little progress on the estimated one million largely unauthorized buses used for school trips.
Raghu Das, CEO of IDTechEx, explains: "Until recently, it was doubtful whether the rest of the world would take the step of at least 20,000 pure electric buses annually because even RATP's commitment in Paris of 800 is not of the right magnitude given that the Chinese used to place orders of up to 2,000 at a time. Europe's largest city, London, is far below Paris's figure.".
Perhaps as many as 50 countries are taking action. For example, Wellington, New Zealand, launched 10 electric double-decker buses last July, with the goal of having 32 in operation by 2021. Operator EBuzz in the Netherlands has ordered 159 electric buses. Poland's Solaris supplied more than 100 locally and then won a tender for 90 electric buses for the German capital, Berlin. Brussels Airport has ordered 30, but that pales in comparison to Vietnam. A new non-profit bus service launching in Vietnam next year will introduce at least 3,000 new electric buses to Vietnamese roads.
The long term is another matter. The Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro) plans to convert its entire bus fleet to zero-emission models by 2030. This is the second-largest bus fleet in North America after New York City, with similar long-term ambitions. Los Angeles has 2,472 buses. That goal depends on continued improvements in electric bus technology (increased range, shorter battery charging times, and longer battery lifecycles), as well as further price reductions. In 2017, it placed orders for only 105 pure electric buses. London, Los Angeles, and New York City are expected to be major buyers within the next 5-10 years.
However, Das points us to another part of the story: “For all these reasons, it is in India where the 20,000 or more electric buses that are needed annually are likely to be ordered if global demand for electric buses recovers. India has announced sweeping changes to replace 150,000 diesel buses and will add more to tackle chronic air pollution. In fact, India already has more buses than anywhere else. Currently, there are around 1.6 million registered buses in India, of which only 170,000 are in public operator fleets. Under the FAME (Fastest Adoption and Manufacture of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles) scheme, the Centre contributes 60% of the bus price, while the remainder is provided by the states.”.
Kerala's electric vehicle policy aims to introduce one million electric vehicles by 2022, announced Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. A pilot fleet of 3,000 all-electric buses is planned. Andhra Pradesh recently announced it will deploy 350 electric buses in five cities. BYD, the world's second-largest electric bus manufacturer and number one in China's booming electric vehicle market, says it will sell 40,000 all-electric buses globally by 2021, which will undoubtedly involve significant exports. BYD has made a strong start by becoming the leading supplier in Europe and the United States. While Chinese and other manufacturers are permitted to sell in India, figures reveal that the Chinese bus market is effectively closed to imports.
Dr Peter Harrop, IDTechEx Chairman
