The new energy vehicle (NEV) market in China anticipates that PHEV cars will drive this strong growth in the future, as the market share of PHEVs has almost doubled from 2023 to the first half of 2024.
Challenges and predictions
The declining figures in Europe and the United States can be attributed to several market challenges, including high costs and low resale values when purchasing an EV, a lack of available charging infrastructure, and the popularity of hybrid vehicles. While IDTechEx anticipates these obstacles will persist in the short term, the long-term outlook is positive.
From 2025 onwards, IDTechEx anticipates an increased availability of low-cost electric vehicle models, enabling their introduction into the mass market and reaching a broader consumer base where more people can afford to switch to electric. This may be partly due to increasingly stable and reliable battery and production costs, which lower overall vehicle costs and make EVs more attractive.
Charging infrastructure is also growing, with nearly four million public charging stations worldwide in 2023, and an estimated 219 million will be needed by 2035 to support vehicle adoption, according to IDTechEx's charging infrastructure report. Their research also predicts that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will soon overtake the current trend toward plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) as prices fall, charging stations become more widespread, and sustainability and CO2 restrictions continue to tighten.
European manufacturers will also have to increase their share of electric vehicles over the next decade, meaning that any inclination to continue producing high-end electric vehicles for greater profits will be offset by the requirements to meet CO2 reduction targets. However, the opposite is true in China, where consumer demand for electric vehicles is greater than the need to impose regulations.
Overview of the electric vehicle charging market:
The Chinese EV market also leads the rollout of public charging, with 72% of all existing public charging stations in China, which will stand at 2.7 million in 2023, followed by 19% of all charging stations in Europe.
The electric vehicle charging market is increasingly shifting towards direct current (DC) charging, as it is more reliable than alternating current (AC) and allows for better communication. Charging station operators can also potentially earn more with DC, as it can be more profitable. Power conversion modules convert AC power from the grid into DC power to charge electric vehicle batteries. All power modules are designed to be modular, allowing multiple units to be connected for increased performance and faster charging.
Power modules are at the heart of all DC fast chargers, and the current 15 kW modules are beginning to be replaced by 20 and 30 kW versions, with full-load efficiency starting to reach 95%.
IDTechEx describes energy density as the most important metric to consider for charging stations. Doubling the power output within the same size/volume could result in significant cost savings, and increased system efficiency could also reduce losses. Although most charging stations are located in China, they typically serve vehicles with smaller batteries and may not be as powerful as those needed in Europe and the United States.
IDTechEx reports, "Plug-in Hybrid and Battery Electric Cars 2025-2045: Technologies, Players, Regulations, Market Forecasts" and "Charging Infrastructure for Electric Vehicles and Fleets 2025-2035: Markets, Technologies, and Forecasts" cover the latest market developments in the electric vehicle sector, from vehicle adoption to charging innovations.
